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Worst Case Scenarios

Initial Analysis - 2024.10.23

In the current situation, both positive and negative scenarios for the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine war and for related conflicts are possible. Here, JCOT will analyse the consequences of several Worst Case Scenarios. These include:

• Accelerated progress of Russian forces in the eastern part of Ukraine.
• Alignment of current and new conflicts into a WW III scenario.
• Political instability in the West, especially regarding the U.S. 2024 presidential elections.

Section 1 - Accelerated progress of Russian forces in the eastern part of Ukraine

There are multiple factors which could lead to an accelerated progress of Russian forces on the eastern front. One of course is the Ukrainian lack of ammunition which is now extremely severe according to reports. Both Ukraine and the West have failed to scale up large calibre ammunition production sufficiently. France had pushed through EU weapons purchasing rules restricting purchases to EU and Norway produced arms. Now, following a Czech initiative to purchase artillery shells from abroad, those rules are finally taken back. But the push to build new ammunition factories was too slow in many countries.

Another factor accelerating the Russian offensive is the approaching spring and summer which will allow Russia to progress more easily. At the same time, Ukraine has not sufficiently built fortifications along the frontline and behind it. Russian glide bomb attacks are being used to level villages which currently serve as points of resistance, as shown in Avdiivka. This progress continues, currently threatening Pokrovsk. The Ukrainian Kursk offensive has not changed this situation.

Reportedly, it becomes more and more difficult for Ukraine to find new soldiers. The high military age, designed to protect Ukraine's demography, has been lowered and will be lowered even more in the future. But the tiredness of the currently fighting soldiers might lead to a breakdown. The gamble of Ukraine's leadership, swapping territory for Russian exhaustion and loss of equipment until the Russian army breaks down, might not work, especially if the involvement of North Korea grows. A breakdown after the fall of Pokrovsk could lead to an enclosure operation in the direction of Dnipro and cutting of Zaporizhzhia and its oblast. The loss of Kharkiv and the eastern part of Dnipropetrovsk oblasts probably would lead to a partial capitulation of the Ukrainian government. In Western Ukraine, a military-led emergency government might take power.

Section 2 - Alignment of conflicts in a WW III scenario

We are currently seeing an escalation in Ukraine, with North Korean troops supporting Russia and with both Russia and Ukraine adding new systems to their arsenals. Russia has used a new Mid Range Ballistic Missile which uses ICBM technology for the first time, and Ukraine has now the waiver to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles against positions within Russia. North Korean long range artillery (60km) is reported to be prepared for use. At the same time, more and more obvious Russian covert war activities are reported, e.g. data cables and gas pipelines destroyed in the Baltic and drone incursions and arson attacks against Western military and related installations. A point might come where the threshold of open agression will be reached, leading to NATO involvement.

At the same time, Israel is involved into a number of parallel wars, intensively with Hamas, Hizbollah and on a lower level with Syria, Iran and the West Bank Palestinians. Human rights violations by Israel overshadow those of Hamas by now. Israeli PM Netanyahu is now officially on the "Wanted" list of the ICC. This makes it difficult for Western countries to support Israel. Iran is allied with Russia, with Russian forces operating in Syria and Iran supplying arms to Russia.

Up to now, we assumed that a WW III scenario depends on China opening a third front, probably against Taiwan. This may not be so, though. For China, it may be strategically more practical to heat up the existing conflicts, by covert support for Russia and maybe their covert war activities. The main suspects for the Baltic operations are actually Chinese ships. The risk of losing an all out China-Taiwan-U.S. war is high, and both the Chinese export markets and raw materials imports would break down in any case. Alternatively, North Korea might attack South Korea, but with the current involvement in the Ukraine war, this would make no sense to them at the moment as the experiences of that action would have to be absorbed first and as their arsenals are being emptied by shipments to Russia.

Therefore, the surprise action which might be seen as the official begin of WW III might come from Russia, eg an occupation of Svalbard and operations in Scandinavia or in the Baltics, eg as described by Richard Shirreff . The demilitarized Aland Islands in the Baltic Sea are also a possible target for provocative action. Current Russian reserves of land forces are low, but those parts of the navy which are not stationed in the Black Sea are fully available.

In a slowly escalating WW III, the arms and drone production capacities of China would stand against those of the U.S. and the West. Currently, in regards to production volumes, China would win. In a sense, such a WW III would be a Chinese proxy war, with China feeling threatened by the U.S. economically through tariffs. China would only officially enter the war at a later point if it deems it the right time.

The key weapons below the nuclear threshold will be AI controlled drones. The fast scaling up of Ukrainian drone production, now also including AI based systems, are a first indication, but Ukraine's production capacities are no match against China. Total Allied (ie G7 Western + Ukraine + Israel + Taiwan) capacity will scale up, though, as soon as governments and the general population understand the situation. Unluckily, the current and incoming political leadership in many major Allied countries does not seem to be up to the task. Also, a solution has to be found to rein in Israel's human rights violations and occupation of Palestinian territories. Without such a solution, morale of the Western nations will be poisoned.

The world will be different after WW III. Instinctively, one assumes an Allied victory over the Axis countries, probably with a limited nuclear phase at the end. But the huge arsenals of the 3 major and 4-5 minor nuclear powers will draw out this victory or even make it impossible. A breakup and partial capitulation of the Allies is possible. Many nations would become client states of China, while Russia would win back all former USSR territories located on its western frontier and create a "Finlandized" zone in Scandinavia and possibly extending to the Rhine. Worst worst case scenario would be a full-fledged nuclear escalation, instigated by Putin.

Section 3 - Political Instability in the West

We currently believe that the worst case scenario danger regarding political instability in the West has now passed, with Trump winning conclusively the 2024.11.06 Presidential elections in the U.S.. Although both JCOT and the F.M.S.D. make no secret of their disdain of D.J.Trump and his ilk, we expected the highest danger in a situation where the result of the elections would have been unclear for an extended period. This could have led to armed conflicts both between "MAGA militias" and the government or even between U.S. States. Also, the fact that the Trump cabinet seems to have sprung from a horror clown train makes it less probable that radical decisions which are sure to come could will be fully implemented, as the cabale of strange types will have difficulty enough controlling their respective agencies and branches of government, at least at the beginning. This will give the other side a window to organize and prepare. Of course, the Trump administration can end Ukraine support almost at will, but the Republicans are split on this issue and Trump has much prestige to lose, as he promised to end the conflict in "24 hours".

In Europe, political instability in the core states France, Germany and Italy is high but can be managed. In Germany, we expect a CDU led government to be elected in early 2025. In France, the next Presidential election will only be 2027. In Italy, the current right wing coalition looks stable. Critical instabilities appear only on the fringes, in Hungary, Slovakia, Turkey and Georgia, where authoritarian minded governments fight democratic oppositions, and in Armenia and Moldova, where it is the other way round. Most European governments, from the Left to the Right, stand with Ukraine and will give a level of support even if U.S. support drains up. The West now has learned that Ukraine's arms production capabilities are now strong enough to survive and that it is more "money for value" in investing in those capabilities than in purchasing expensive Western equipment.

In sum, we believe dangerous instabilities to come only at a later point, after 2027, at a point where the war in Ukraine will probably have been decided or where it will have expanded in scope as described above.

Summary

We believe that certain Worst Case scenarios are possible and have actually become more probable in the last few months. The "Waiting for Trump" time is almost over, with Inauguration Day on 2025.01.20. An accelerated breakdown of Ukrainian resistance is possible, especially if U.S. support drains up and attention of the world focusses on an U.S. horror picture show. It is not clear when and under which conditions Putin would accept a negotiated solution. The currently discussed armistice-at-current-frontlines with a "neutral" Ukraine armed by the West is improbable to be accepted by Putin as Ukraine would then be able to arm itself to a level which would make further attacks impossible. This might extend even to nuclear arms. Therefore, Putin will certainly demand Ukraine's disarmament and stationing of occupation forces in major parts of currently free Ukraine.

The current trajectory of escalation, though, points to an expansion of the conflict. Putin might use the time window of the first chaotic months of the incoming Trump administration for suprise operations, hoping that a pro-Russian Secret Service boss and a tattooed Fox News host as Secretary of Defense will not put up much resistance. The time window for this is probably not much longer than one year. NATO will have to either react or become obsolete. A full WW III conflict can then only be avoided if the response is strong and swift, compareable to the Falklands War in 1982 which led to the fall of the Argentine military dictatorship.

JCOT, 2024.11.24