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General Situation Update 2025.12.31

Ukraine / Russia

Russian forces now control Huliaipole, Pokrovsk, large parts of Myrnohrad. In Kupiansk, Ukraine was able to surround and suppress most Russian forces. No changes regarding the "peace negotiations". JCOT expects slow progress of Russian forces in the Sloviansk / Kramatorsk direction in 2026, and possibly faster progress in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Ukrainian long range strikes are expected to become stronger, with higher numbers of long range drones / missiles.

The warning regarding Russian attacks on European countries remains, with lower probability in the first half of 2026.

Israel / Iran

In Iran, a new wave of country wide protests has started. This time, they might get out of control, as at the same time Israel might start new strikes against the Iranian nuclear and ballistic installations, which is to be expected for 2026. In combination, this might lead to a sudden revolution in Iran. Israel seems to delay the peace progress in Gaza and is losing worldwide support even in the U.S..

USA / Venezuela

The Russian decision to withdraw the families of their diplomats and the first special forces attacks on Venezuelan land targets make it probable that the USA will slowly escalate their attacks, leading to a protracted war.

USA

Internally, the US seem to have quietened a bit, with popular support for the Trumpists having fallen to a relatively low level. Midterm elections in autumn 2027 will be decisive. At the moment, it seems they will take place without larger disturbances. If Trump becomes more and more irrational and unpopular, especially with a war against Venezuela, his minions might try to dispose him just before the Midterms.

China / Taiwan

The $11B US arms sales to Taiwan might lead China to schedule an attack on Taiwan sooner than expected. An US/Venezuela war or internal chaos in the U.S. may be the opportunity they are looking for.

Summary

All of these conflicts seem to be connected. The U.S. slowly escalating a new front could lead to a full scale worldwide conflict breaking out, as China and / or Russia could utilize the distractions for their own purposes.

General Situation Update 2025.09.27

Ukraine / Russia

The expected Russian strike on NATO in mid September has not yet occurred. Multiple Russian incursions with fighter aircraft in the Estonian airspace and drones in Poland, Denmark, Germany and other countries point to a short timescale for this, though. Multiple indications point to a relatively short timescale for Russia to expand the ongoing war. Elections in Moldova and in Narva (Estonia) may supply Russia with propaganda arguments for escalation. The Ukrainian President has warned the Europeans that Russia is in fact preparing to attack another European country, without mentioning which one. JCOT sees these possibilities:

• Narva, Estonia, occupying a city which is mostly Russian speaking, as a provocative act.
• Svalbard, Norway, as a provocative act.
• Suwalki Gap, Poland / Lithuania, as a strategic act to block the Baltic states and ensure a connection to Kaliningrad oblast.
• Eastern Poland, as a strategic act to block most supplies to Ukraine

All of these would trigger NATO Article 5.

JSFM observers have observed an Eurofighter following a MiG 29 on 2025.09.23 over Bristow Base. It was not possible to identify the signs on the MiG 29 fighter. With high probability it was a Polish plane, but the maneuver could be seen as an incursion training. If it was, in fact, a Russian fighter being escorted, the situation would be much worse than expected.

alt='Polish MiG 29'>

The war situation in Ukraine has worsened in some aspects, although several Russian groupings near Pokrovsk are now caught in cauldrons. Russian forces have progressed in the Lyman direction and other areas, but the main battle is being fought around Pokrovsk. Ukrainian drones have waged several successful attacks on Russian refineries, threatening their fuel supply. Russia might feel pressured to expand the theatre also because Ukrainian technical and production advances threaten their industrial and economic backbone in the mid term.

Israel / Iran

Israel has started a large operation against Gaza City. Also, it performed an attack on the Hamas HQ in Qatar, breaking the sovereignty of that country and provoking all Arab nations.The country is now regularly accused of performing a Genocide. SDFM has not yet used this word to describe the situation, following the "Foregone Conclusion" doctrine. Major nations like the United Kingdom, Canada and Australia have recognized Palestine as a state. Italy is protecting an aid flotilla travelling towards Gaza. At the same time, political forces are coming together which prepare a temporary solution to the conflict by installing a temporary authority led by the former British PM Tony Blair.

Regarding Iran, no news have been coming about the nuclear program. This does not mean that it has been shut down.

At the same time, Saudi Arabia has signed a defense pact with Pakistan which is assumed to include nuclear weapons. It has long been assumed that such a pact would exist anyway, with Saudi Arabia as a supplier of funds for Pakistani nuclear weapons, but now it has been confirmed and made more or less official.

USA

The usual surprises have come from the Trump administration. Attacks on Venezuelan drug ships, usage of the law system to attack internal enemies, and now the plan to "occupy" Portland, Oregon with troops. A blockade by the Democrats threatens to lead to a government shutdown soon. It is possible that the Trump administration could try to stage a crisis or auto-coup to get around this blockade. Most surprisingly, Trump rhetorics have turned against Russia, while War Minister (after renaming the ministry of defense "ministry of war") Hegseth is assembling all U.S. generals for a meeting in Virginia on 2025.09.30, for an unknown purpose.

Summary

Most surprisingly, WW III did not break loose by the Israeli attack on Iran. The total loss of Iran's air defense might even be taken as a warning sign to Russia, that any attack on NATO territory would be bombed to the ground by NATO air forces. Russian rhetorics still point towards a limited attack on NATO, but maybe in a situation where massive use of air power is not feasible, eg Narva or Svalbard.

General Situation Update 2025.06.10

Retrospection

The U.S. elections led to a worse than expected result. In contrast to our expectations, it was not contested. Another failed prediction was the statement regarding the "Ampel" government in Germany, which broke up spectacularly after the U.S. elections. The Israeli offensive in Lebanon was correctly predicted, but Iran has not made the step to test a nuclear bomb yet. In Ukraine, the prediction of spectacular long range attacks came true, although the Kerch attack was not really successful, in contrast to the attack on long range bombers on several air bases. The Georgia and China / Taiwan predictions basically were correct.

Some events came completely unexpected. First, the collapse of the Syrian government and the victory of HTS which took less than two weeks. There is information that Ukraine sent some drone experts and drones to help the rebels. The second event was the clash between India and Pakistan in which Pakistan basically won by shooting down a number of Indian fighter jets. A derivative of this is that the success of Chinese made fighters against Western and Russian ones on the Indian side will unluckily encourage the Chinese government in regards to its chances in Taiwan.

Ukraine / Russia

Both the ground and the air war are escalating over the summer. On the ground, we expect limited Russian breakthroughs at some fronts, as the frontline has extended to the north. Deep Ukrainian strikes on Russia will continue, especially with the advancing long range drone technology and with F16 supported by Saab AEW&C radar planes. As Russia understands that these strikes will be too costly in the long run and that occupying large parts of Eastern Ukraine will not stop them, Putin maybe will decide to "expand the game" by executing either a nuclear strike on Ukraine (improbable) or strike directly at NATO by occupying Svalbard while threatening the Suwalki gap during or directly after the Zapad maneuver in mid September. The goal would be to force the West to freeze supplies for Ukraine.

Israel / Iran

The Israeli attacks on Gaza and also their actions in the West Bank are now regularly called "genocidal" by a number of Israeli and other Jewish scholars and politicians. Regarding Iran, the Islamist government knows there is no exit - a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue is basically not possible. On the other hand, liberalizing the country would lead to a popular revolution. Their goal is to continue to negotiate as long as possible.

What has to break, will break at some point. The U.S. government is not interested in a war against Iran and will try to prevent Israel from initiating it. We are not sure if he will successful in that.

We believe it is probable that two other players will enter the game soon - Egypt and Jordan. The regional destabilisation which Israel pushes in Lebanon, Syria and the occupied territories is not in their long term interests. Egypt might decide to send aid to Gaza under military protection. The Egyptian army, though not armed with nuclear weapons, is strong, and like the Jordanian one, has been modernized in the last few years.

USA

Here, the situations develops fast. As of today, Trump has put the Californian National Guard under his control and is deploying them and also Marine forces to Los Angeles. The "Insurrection Act" has not yet been used. We see this as a question of time. Trump wants to provoke California into breaking the U.S. constitution and to take over control, also to deter other states from resistance. Also, this serves as a distraction from economic and social issues.

We expect the Californian government to fight back only via the legal path, and fail. This will lead to organized resistance, also armed, by the population. The Democratic Party of California will have to decide on their path of action. Mid term we fear this develops into a Yugoslav scenario. The only way to stop this would be a concerted action of the Democrat ruled U.S. states to protect their National Guards from federal takeover, but this will not happen.

Of course, a number of surprise actions will spring from the MAGA government, as distraction is what they need.

China / Taiwan

We believe there is a timeline by the Chinese government when and how to occupy Taiwan. This timeline might be upended though by current U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan, the chaos exploding in the U.S. and the possible Taiwanese adoption or replication of Ukrainian drone technology. Still, we do not believe that 2025 will be the year the war starts. Chaos in the U.S. is something which would lead China to "sit back and enjoy", not use as a military opportunity.

Summary

As the "precursor" Ukraine/Russia war is set to continue through 2025 and probably 2026, we see the WW III explosion coming, triggered by either Russia vs. NATO on Svalbard or (worse) Suwalki gap, or Israel attacking Iran. Russia and Iran are allied - it is possible that Russia would decide to support Iran militarily. China / Taiwan will follow, not lead, this, as the CCP leaders know that a failure here might break their rule, due to the economic chaos and loss of face it would lead to.

Update - 2025.06.15

As hinted at, President Trump was "not successful" in preventing Israel from attacking Iran. On 2026.06.13, Israel started an airbourne attack on Iran which has not ended yet. JCOT expects this will continue awhile. The Iranian nuclear enrichment sites of Natans and Fordow are located in deep bunkers, but repeated attacks might be able to destroy them. At the same time, Iran will surely accelerate their steps to produce a nuclear bomb, although their current losses point at a not sufficient level of organisation to reach this goal.

For Russia, this new conflict means less weapons from Iran, and the potential loss of an "Axis" member. But at the same time, higher oil prices help to balance the state budget. Russia is not providing any active support to Iran. If the U.S. joins the attack on Iran, Russia might use the opportunity to test NATO at one of the expected locations, or even at an unexpected one like Saint-Pierre et Miquelon. There are also signs that the China / Taiwan situation might develop faster than expected.

General Situation Update 2024.09.28

In general, the inflection point will be the U.S. elections and the expected instability following them. The calendars of several other conflicts are linked to this date. A conjunction of several conflicts, aligned into a worldwide dualistic system, as can be seen today, is generally called a "World War".

Ukraine / Russia:

We expect the war of attrition to slow during winter. Ukraine might attempt spectacular long range attacks including Kerch bridge. Russia will try to destroy the power infrastructure of Ukraine during the winter and may also attack nuclear power plants. Under certain circumstances (political crisis in the U.S., extended warfare in the Mideast theatre), Russia might draw the nuclear option, but we see this as improbable at the time.

Israel / Iran:

We expect Israel to start a ground offensive in Lebanon, with the goal to create a 30-40 km buffer zone. Iran will execute a test explosion of an Uranium bomb in the November / December timeframe. A direct military reaction of Israel or the West is improbable. If Iran succeeds, this might lead to a temporary stabilisation of the region.

Update 2024.09.30: Today, the Guardian has published an excellent analysis by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj on the nuclear option of Iran, with which JCOT fully concurs.

USA:

We expect the election to hinge on one or two critical swing states. There will be litigation going to the Supreme Court regarding the results in these states. Its decision cannot be predicted at the moment, also not the reaction of Red / Blue states on that decision. The U.S. will be blocked politically in the period between November and February.

Germany:

Difficult coalition negotiations in 3 eastern states will lead to tensions within BSW, but also in other parties. "Ampel" coalition will hold through 2024.

China / Taiwan:

China will accelerate its preparations for an invasion as it sees "cover" conflicts in Europe and Mideast explode. Taiwanese preparations for defense will accelerate, too. Growing crisis of the Chinese economy will lead to more economic support efforts. A near time invasion is not expected as preparations have not yet reached the necessary level. Publicly discussed is 2027, but a shift to 2026 is thought to be possible.

Georgia:

Elections will lead to political crisis and instability. "Georgian Dream" expected to try to hold on power at all costs, including Russian military support. This might trigger a civil war.