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General Situation Update

Starting from 2024.09, SDFM has tasked JCOT with creating a regular General Situation Update containing summarized short term predictions on WW critical regions. These include Ukraine / Russia, Israel / Iran, USA, Germany, China / Taiwan and other regions as applicable. Within JCOT, the Compartment for Analysis, Strategic Simulation and Research (CASSANDRA) is responsible for the General Situation Update.

General Situation Update 2026.03.30

Ukraine / Russia

The number and range of Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure and war related factories is rising. Especially the attacks on Ust-Luga, the Russian industrial port on the Baltic coast has shown that the war zone is expanding. In respect to the direct frontline, the range of smaller drones has also grown, which means that the advantage of fibre optical controlled drones with their typical range of 20km has been falling, compared to semi-autonomous systems with a range of 50km. JCOT expects that the battle zone will continue to widen, driven by two-stage "drone mothership" systems, relay communication technology and possibly by solar drifter drones with basically infinite range.

Tactically, the Russian advance has slowed to a crawl and is being rolled back at some points. Successful Ukrainian attacks on the port of Novorossiysk have shown that even highly protected areas can now be attacked. This opens up the option of another Kerch bridge attack, breaking Russian logistics.

JCOT expects the instable equilibrium to continue for some time. The Russian tactics to slowly advance in the direction of Zaporizhzhia, Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, then using their numerical advantage to infiltrate the cities will take a long time. At the same time, we observe Russian propaganda efforts against the Baltic states. Together with the perceived instability of NATO and their current lack of drone experience, this might mean a Russian attempt at occupying the Baltic states could start in late 2026 or early 2027. The best tactics to stop Russia would be to make clear that an attack on NATO territory would not only lead to local counter-action in the Baltics, but also result in active support for Ukraine, especially with air strikes.

USA / Israel / Iran / Lebanon

Signs are growing that the U.S. are preparing for a land offensive in Iran. One generally expected target is the oil terminal of Kharg island. We expect this to be relatively easy, as it is not in the interest of Iran to have it destroyed. Any U.S. forces occupying it would have to leave anyway at some point. And it would tempt Trump to execute landing operations in other areas of Iran by sea or by air, searching for the Iranian HEU stocks. This makes it relatively easy to set up traps and wage an unconventional war. A similar effort of Israel in Lebanon has the goal to occupy and depopulate large parts of the country. FPV drone technology and experience seem to be not as pervasive as in the Ukraine / Russia war, but some usage has been documented, e.g. in Syria and recently in Iraq. In Ukraine, it took less than one year to completely change the way the war was fought. In the mideast theatre, both Israel and the U.S. use highly expensive and advanced systems which might have difficulties to cope with cheap high volume drones.

The nuclear aspect has already been discussed below - a correction is that the Hiroshima bomb was actually not tested at all, the first nuclear test explosion was one of a Plutonium bomb. The Uranium bomb was dropped on Hiroshima without any advance testing. It is also known that South Africa in the 1970/80 possessed up to 6 Uranium bombs, but had no plans to test them because it was not felt to be necessary. Under conditions of the current war, though, we do not expect that Iran can assemble a nuclear bomb. That will come after the war has ended.

JCOT expects a further escalation of the war, at high costs to the U.S.. Ground troops would be expected to be landed before June 2026 on Kharg Island, and before September in mainland Iran. The political chaos expected in the U.S. in November 2026 will either lead to a voluntary withdrawal of U.S. forces or, later in 2027, to a situation where U.S. forces might be surrounded and evacuated.

China / Taiwan

One aspect of great concern is the current stop of oil and gas shipments to East Asia, which also is impacting Taiwan. There is a nonzero risk of China attempting to take that opportunity and start a full blockade of the island.

Economy and politics

With the escalation in mideast, a full blown economic crisis is to be expected. Oil and gas prices will rise even more. Food prices are not only hit by these, but also by availability and costs of fertilizers. This will lead to a populist revolt in several Western countries, but at the same time to more courage by liberal forces to contain it. Experience shows that democracies can be pushed around for a while during crisis times, but then often rise to the occasion.

Emergency Situation Update 2026.03.11

Based on several observations regarding the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, JCOT has come to the conclusion that the U.S. are losing the war. They are:

• Sinking of the Iranian navy vessel IRIS Dena .
• Laughable attempt by the U.S. President to shift blame for the attack on a Girls' school on Iran
• Attack on a major oil depot in Teheran, resulting in extreme pollution.
• Continued operation of Iranian radio and television, except for limitied strikes on Iranian TV Headquarters
• Election of Mojtaba as Supreme Leader
• Lack of preparation for a land invasion of Iran and lack of signs of a general rising of the population
• Non-sustainable military costs of about US$ 1B per day, plus difficult to estimate economic costs.

After almost two weeks, it becomes clear that the U.S. and Israel have no sound strategy how to win the war. Any attempt to split the Iranian regime would have required to spare major civilan targets and those parts of the Iranian Army and Navy which are not currently active in the war. With the IRIS Dena attack near Sri Lanka and the attack on the oil depot, plus several other attacks on civilian targets including a Girls' school, it has become clear that the U.S. leadership has no such strategy. There is also no sign of a media camouflage / blackout campaign which could have manipulated the Iranian information landscape to simulate local rebellions, based on the "fake it until you make it" principle. As a result, the Iranian leadership has elected Mojtaba Khamenei as new Supreme Leader, a hardliner who also seems to support acquiring nuclear weapons. The hardliners seem to be in full control of the country for the time being.

To avoid an Iranian nuclear bomb, either a full land invasion or precise commando operations are necessary. A land invasion requires months of preparation which did not yet start. The Iranian HEU stocks are distributed over at least two locations according to IAEA. The Iranian leadership knows of the danger of a commando strike and probably has prepared countermeasures. It could also set up traps by simulating transports to other locations. A commando strike would require quite some time on the primary locations, making them almost impossible.

If the U.S. end the war before the HEU stocks are brought under control, it will de facto have lost the war as Iran then will build a Uranium bomb.

Note that the Hiroshima bomb was built with 1945 technology and exploded after only one test explosion. It is highly probable that Iran could produce about 10 nuclear bombs with the current stocks only months after the current war has ended. The high costs of the conflict mean, though, that the U.S. are not able to continue it for more than about three months, with falling efficiency as Iranian forces will distribute and hide. The U.S. have started to pull together air defense from other regions, e.g. South Korea.

Unluckily, there is one logical way to win the conflict. This is the use of nuclear weapons to destroy the two assumed Iranian HEU depots. Using conventional high impact weapons is no alternative, as the positions of the HEU can be easily shifted locally. There is thus a danger that the U.S. would execute a nuclear strike, with catastrophic consequences for the future of this planet as it would lead to a world wide nuclear arms race.

Emergency Situation Update 2026.02.28

On the last day of February (thus in the timeframe predicted by JCOT), the U.S. and Israel have started to attack Iran with a massive bombing campaign. The stated goal is regime change. Retaliatory Iranian ballistic rockets have been launched against U.S. bases, with limited effect. Targets of the U.S. and Israeli strikes are both rocket launch sites, military installations and government centers.

JCOT believes that, for regime change, the strikes will have to be sustained and would need to be combined with effective information warfare. All Iranian government information sources would have to be silenced and replaced by credible opposition Radio and TV broadcasts. Those would need to create an image of successful regional opposition takeovers supported by army units switching sides. Locally, opposition groups would need to be armed and supported by targeted airstrikes. Reza Pahlevi's organisation would have to be involved in this. We doubt that the Trump administration would be intellectually able to pull this off. This means a prolonged bombing campaign would lead to a kind of stalemate, with the mullah regime still in control of most Iranian regions. Kurdish regions might be able to liberate themselves, especially as Kurdish groups have united. But traditionally, the Kurds are always shortchanged in the end.

It is possible that U.S. campaign will lead to "success" by destroying the Iranian government structures, toppling the mullah regime, though. In this case, the risk is high that China and / or Russia come to the conclusion that they would need to strike their respective targets (Taiwan / Suwalki gap and Baltics) as soon as possible, while the U.S. are still distracted and the ordinance stocks emptied. That would lead to a WW III scenario, of course.

Populist leaders always lead their countries to war against each other, even if they seem to be "allies" in some respect (even the U.S. and Iran quite often voted the same way in the U.N.). Today, the four "great powers" USA, Russia, China and India are ruled by populists, as well as many smaller countries. This leaves not much space for hope.

Emergency Situation Update 2026.02.20

Multiple sources now underline our 2026.01.29 assessment regarding an U.S. attack on Iran. The Ford CSG is nearing the Eastern Mediterranean area from which they would be able to support an attack on Iran. Massive air power has been assembled. Trump is openly talking about an attack, whereas the Geneva negiotiations have been deemed a "Nothingburger". It is currently unclear, though, if U.S. forces will be able to use Diego Garcia and the bases in various Arab countries at some point during the attack. Probably, the U.S. will be able to use them after Iranian strikes. The timeframe seems to have shrinked, possibly matching our original February timeframe prediction.

JCOT expects an U.S. strategy of striking against IRGC forces, while at the same time offering amnesty towards Iranian army leaders who would be willing to execute a coup against the current regime. No U.S. ground forces except those currently being withdrawn from Syria seem to be availabe. It is probable, though, that the U.S. and Israel have made plans with internal Iranian groups, equipping them with arms as soon as the attack starts. As soon as it is started, an U.S. attack is required to finally topple the regime as otherwise Iran will try to complete the construction of a nuclear bomb.

It is difficult to predict how the attack will come out. It is quite probable that it will be successful, especially if all electronic communication is shut down and traffic connections to the provinces cut. There are several regions where a takeover of rebels seems possible if they receive arms. This might lead to a breakup of Iran, though, if Reza Pahlevi is not able to create an unified central government within a short timeframe.

Another issue is the possibility of a relief attack by Russia or China. While there are no signs of Chinese preparations for an attack of Taiwan, there are certain signs that Russia or their Belarusian proxies might use the opportunity for a strike. Belarus has called up reservists in Grodno , near the Suwalki gap, for a snap readiness check. With the German forces in Lithuania only in the process of being readied, Russia migth see this as the last opportunity to create a link to Kaliningrad. Belarusian forces would be the first wave, flooding the Suwalki gap region, while Russian forces with modern drone technology would follow on and secure the area. U.S. forces would be strained to send strategical bombers with the Iran war in full progress. Also, bomb stocks would be depleted. European ground forces would be no match for drone experienced Russian forces, at least for the time being.

General Situation Update 2026.01.29

Barely two months after the last General Situation Update, several predictions have come true and been falsified at the same time. The revolt in Iran, which had barely started, has exploded but then bloodily suppressed, with between 10'000 and 30'000 people murdered. The U.S. have attacked Venezuela and arrested President Maduro, but avoided a protracted invasion. Internally, in Minnesota, two U.S. citizens were murdered by ICE forces.

Ukraine / Russia

Direct negiotiations between Ukraine and Russia have started in Abu Dhabi. There are signs that they are more effective than the U.S. and EU "plans" which were suggested in 2025. At the same time, the Russian terror campaign against Ukrainian cities and energy supplies has reached an extreme level. On the front, there was only slow movement, but a number of large cities, including Zaporizhzhia are coming into reach of killer drones. Ukrainian drone production has doubled again in 2025, reaching 4 million drones. The question is open in what numbers longer range weapons can be produced by Ukraine which could also be used against Moscow. As long as the Russian population in the capital is isolated from the war, it is improbable that Putin will agree to an armistice.

JCOT predicts only slow change of the situation in the next few months. It is possible that Moldova, Romania and Ukraine will attempt to finally resolve the Transnistria issue in 2026. For all parties, it is mandatory that this is resolved before any armistice with Russia is signed. A representative of an allied micronation is slated to travel to Transnistria in 1H2026.

Iran

After the protests in Iran were suppressed by killing between 10'000 and 30'000 people, the regime has lost all connection with the nation. With Reza Pahlavi, an alternative leadership has come up. The economic situation is dire and will continue to degrade quickly. U.S. forces have assembled with one aircraft carrier group, and demands for an end of Uranium enrichment, an end to proxy forces support and a limitation of long range missiles have been made which Iran is sure to reject as it also internally would show the regime's weakness. As a consequence, a limited strike against IRGC forces and / or the government is expected which might escalate if Iran replies with attacks on U.S. bases. This, in combination with a psychological war campaign and support from Iranian groups, might topple the regime.

The long term alternative unfortunately resembles the Syrian revolution - revolts in the provinces leading to a protracted no-limits civil war. The Mullah regime is bound to lose it eventually, but it might destroy the country which is also in the grips of a severe climate / water crisis. The resulting refugee wave is the nightmare of neighbouring and European countries.

It is expected that the U.S. forces will act in the February timeframe. With the potential fall of another Axis member, after Syria and Venezuela, China and Russia might decide to take offensive steps in their respective areas of interest.

Addendum 2026.02.11

The probability of a massive U.S. strike on Iran is rising. A second carrier group might be sent to the Persian Gulf. Due to the current carrier group locations , this transfer might take until end of February. Also, a three digit number of C17 transport flights to the region has been reported, plus a transfer of AC130 "Ghostrider" planes which serve as ground attack gunships. It is assumed that both Iranian exile groups and Israeli services might prepare the ground for an armed rising in Iran which would be supported by US air power. The motivation for the US president might be to secure a quick victory which might help him in the November elections. Iranian oil ressources of course come into play, too. The US president, turning 80 in June and visibly unhealthy, might want to secure his place in history as his time is running out. After the Iranian massacres in January, he can be sure that there will be no protest from the liberal side in case of a fast victory. Both the June 2025 attacks on Iran and the Venezuela strike would have convinced him that the risk of a regime change strike on Iran is low.

The Iranian army is split in two halves, the original Army and the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) which is designated as a terrorist organization by the US, EU and others. The army has twice as many troops as the IRGC. Both organisations have ground forces, navies and an air / missile force. It is seen as feasible that the Army would be encouraged to execute a coup after the IRGC were decimated by air attacks. The risk most feared by neighbouring countries is a prolonged civil war and chaos, sending refugees in all directions. Also, secessionism by Kurds and Azeris in the north is possible.

Economy

Gold and Silver prices have exploded, breaking through the € 4000 and € 100 barriers, respectively (in the F.M., the US$ is not used as a reference point). The decision everybody is waiting for is who will be the new U.S. Fed head. Even if he proves to be under Trump's influence, we expect the speculation wave to break for some time after the decision. But this will only be a temporary reprieve - the pressure on fiat currencies is rising with debt levels in all major currency areas. LBMA data does not show any critical fall of physical stocks, In spite of this, BOFM experts believe a FOFOA scenario might currently become reality, which would mean another factor of 10 in Gold prices.

The role of US$ as the WW reserve currency is not impacted in the short term. It might break suddenly, though, if US$ bonds are sold by major international holders at a rising rate and especially if the U.S. start to implement measures to stop them from being sold. U.S. currency restrictions of any kind would lead to an extreme explosion of Gold and crypto currencies, for the latter probably the "last bubble". An extended internal conflict within the U.S. ("Civil War II") will lead to worldwide economic chaos and an end to dollar dominance.