General Situation Update
Starting from 2024.09, SDFM has tasked JCOT with creating a regular General Situation Update containing summarized short term predictions on WW critical regions. These include Ukraine / Russia, Israel / Iran, USA, Germany, China / Taiwan and other regions as applicable. Within JCOT, the Compartment for Analysis, Strategic Simulation and Research (CASSANDRA) is responsible for the General Situation Update. General Situation Update 2024.09.28
In general, the inflection point will be the U.S. elections and the expected instability following them. The calendars of several other conflicts are linked to this date. A conjunction of several conflicts, aligned into a worldwide dualistic system, as can be seen today, is generally called a "World War". Ukraine / Russia:
We expect the war of attrition to slow during winter. Ukraine might attempt spectacular long range attacks including Kerch bridge. Russia will try to destroy the power infrastructure of Ukraine during the winter and may also attack nuclear power plants. Under certain circumstances (political crisis in the U.S., extended warfare in the Mideast theatre), Russia might draw the nuclear option, but we see this as improbable at the time. Israel / Iran:
We expect Israel to start a ground offensive in Lebanon, with the goal to create a 30-40 km buffer zone. Iran will execute a test explosion of an Uranium bomb in the November / December timeframe. A direct military reaction of Israel or the West is improbable. If Iran succeeds, this might lead to a temporary stabilisation of the region. USA:
We expect the election to hinge on one or two critical swing states. There will be litigation going to the Supreme Court regarding the results in these states. Its decision cannot be predicted at the moment, also not the reaction of Red / Blue states on that decision. The U.S. will be blocked politically in the period between November and February. Germany:
Difficult coalition negotiations in 3 eastern states will lead to tensions within BSW, but also in other parties. "Ampel" coalition will hold through 2024. China / Taiwan:
China will accelerate its preparations for an invasion as it sees "cover" conflicts in Europe and Mideast explode. Taiwanese preparations for defense will accelerate, too. Growing crisis of the Chinese economy will lead to more economic support efforts. A near time invasion is not expected as preparations have not yet reached the necessary level. Publicly discussed is 2027, but a shift to 2026 is thought to be possible. Georgia:
Elections will lead to political crisis and instability. "Georgian Dream" expected to try to hold on power at all costs, including Russian military support. This might trigger a civil war. |