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General Situation Update

Starting from 2024.09, SDFM has tasked JCOT with creating a regular General Situation Update containing summarized short term predictions on WW critical regions. These include Ukraine / Russia, Israel / Iran, USA, Germany, China / Taiwan and other regions as applicable. Within JCOT, the Compartment for Analysis, Strategic Simulation and Research (CASSANDRA) is responsible for the General Situation Update.

General Situation Update 2025.06.10

Retrospection

The U.S. elections led to a worse than expected result. In contrast to our expectations, it was not contested. Another failed prediction was the statement regarding the "Ampel" government in Germany, which broke up spectacularly after the U.S. elections. The Israeli offensive in Lebanon was correctly predicted, but Iran has not made the step to test a nuclear bomb yet. In Ukraine, the prediction of spectacular long range attacks came true, although the Kerch attack was not really successful, in contrast to the attack on long range bombers on several air bases. The Georgia and China / Taiwan predictions basically were correct.

Some events came completely unexpected. First, the collapse of the Syrian government and the victory of HTS which took less than two weeks. There is information that Ukraine sent some drone experts and drones to help the rebels. The second event was the clash between India and Pakistan in which Pakistan basically won by shooting down a number of Indian fighter jets. A derivative of this is that the success of Chinese made fighters against Western and Russian ones on the Indian side will unluckily encourage the Chinese government in regards to its chances in Taiwan.

Ukraine / Russia

Both the ground and the air war are escalating over the summer. On the ground, we expect limited Russian breakthroughs at some fronts, as the frontline has extended to the north. Deep Ukrainian strikes on Russia will continue, especially with the advancing long range drone technology and with F16 supported by Saab AEW&C radar planes. As Russia understands that these strikes will be too costly in the long run and that occupying large parts of Eastern Ukraine will not stop them, Putin maybe will decide to "expand the game" by executing either a nuclear strike on Ukraine (improbable) or strike directly at NATO by occupying Svalbard while threatening the Suwalki gap during or directly after the Zapad maneuver in mid September. The goal would be to force the West to freeze supplies for Ukraine.

Israel / Iran

The Israeli attacks on Gaza and also their actions in the West Bank are now regularly called "genocidal" by a number of Israeli and other Jewish scholars and politicians. Regarding Iran, the Islamist government knows there is no exit - a negotiated solution to the nuclear issue is basically not possible. On the other hand, liberalizing the country would lead to a popular revolution. Their goal is to continue to negotiate as long as possible.

What has to break, will break at some point. The U.S. government is not interested in a war against Iran and will try to prevent Israel from initiating it. We are not sure if he will successful in that.

We believe it is probable that two other players will enter the game soon - Egypt and Jordan. The regional destabilisation which Israel pushes in Lebanon, Syria and the occupied territories is not in their long term interests. Egypt might decide to send aid to Gaza under military protection. The Egyptian army, though not armed with nuclear weapons, is strong, and like the Jordanian one, has been modernized in the last few years.

USA

Here, the situations develops fast. As of today, Trump has put the Californian National Guard under his control and is deploying them and also Marine forces to Los Angeles. The "Insurrection Act" has not yet been used. We see this as a question of time. Trump wants to provoke California into breaking the U.S. constitution and to take over control, also to deter other states from resistance. Also, this serves as a distraction from economic and social issues.

We expect the Californian government to fight back only via the legal path, and fail. This will lead to organized resistance, also armed, by the population. The Democratic Party of California will have to decide on their path of action. Mid term we fear this develops into a Yugoslav scenario. The only way to stop this would be a concerted action of the Democrat ruled U.S. states to protect their National Guards from federal takeover, but this will not happen.

Of course, a number of surprise actions will spring from the MAGA government, as distraction is what they need.

China / Taiwan

We believe there is a timeline by the Chinese government when and how to occupy Taiwan. This timeline might be upended though by current U.S. arms deliveries to Taiwan, the chaos exploding in the U.S. and the possible Taiwanese adoption or replication of Ukrainian drone technology. Still, we do not believe that 2025 will be the year the war starts. Chaos in the U.S. is something which would lead China to "sit back and enjoy", not use as a military opportunity.

Summary

As the "precursor" Ukraine/Russia war is set to continue through 2025 and probably 2026, we see the WW III explosion coming, triggered by either Russia vs. NATO on Svalbard or (worse) Suwalki gap, or Israel attacking Iran. Russia and Iran are allied - it is possible that Russia would decide to support Iran militarily. China / Taiwan will follow, not lead, this, as the CCP leaders know that a failure here might break their rule, due to the economic chaos and loss of face it would lead to.

Update - 2025.06.15

As hinted at, President Trump was "not successful" in preventing Israel from attacking Iran. On 2026.06.13, Israel started an airbourne attack on Iran which has not ended yet. JCOT expects this will continue awhile. The Iranian nuclear enrichment sites of Natans and Fordow are located in deep bunkers, but repeated attacks might be able to destroy them. At the same time, Iran will surely accelerate their steps to produce a nuclear bomb, although their current losses point at a not sufficient level of organisation to reach this goal.

For Russia, this new conflict means less weapons from Iran, and the potential loss of an "Axis" member. But at the same time, higher oil prices help to balance the state budget. Russia is not providing any active support to Iran. If the U.S. joins the attack on Iran, Russia might use the opportunity to test NATO at one of the expected locations, or even at an unexpected one like Saint-Pierre et Miquelon. There are also signs that the China / Taiwan situation might develop faster than expected.

General Situation Update 2024.09.28

In general, the inflection point will be the U.S. elections and the expected instability following them. The calendars of several other conflicts are linked to this date. A conjunction of several conflicts, aligned into a worldwide dualistic system, as can be seen today, is generally called a "World War".

Ukraine / Russia:

We expect the war of attrition to slow during winter. Ukraine might attempt spectacular long range attacks including Kerch bridge. Russia will try to destroy the power infrastructure of Ukraine during the winter and may also attack nuclear power plants. Under certain circumstances (political crisis in the U.S., extended warfare in the Mideast theatre), Russia might draw the nuclear option, but we see this as improbable at the time.

Israel / Iran:

We expect Israel to start a ground offensive in Lebanon, with the goal to create a 30-40 km buffer zone. Iran will execute a test explosion of an Uranium bomb in the November / December timeframe. A direct military reaction of Israel or the West is improbable. If Iran succeeds, this might lead to a temporary stabilisation of the region.

Update 2024.09.30: Today, the Guardian has published an excellent analysis by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj on the nuclear option of Iran, with which JCOT fully concurs.

USA:

We expect the election to hinge on one or two critical swing states. There will be litigation going to the Supreme Court regarding the results in these states. Its decision cannot be predicted at the moment, also not the reaction of Red / Blue states on that decision. The U.S. will be blocked politically in the period between November and February.

Germany:

Difficult coalition negotiations in 3 eastern states will lead to tensions within BSW, but also in other parties. "Ampel" coalition will hold through 2024.

China / Taiwan:

China will accelerate its preparations for an invasion as it sees "cover" conflicts in Europe and Mideast explode. Taiwanese preparations for defense will accelerate, too. Growing crisis of the Chinese economy will lead to more economic support efforts. A near time invasion is not expected as preparations have not yet reached the necessary level. Publicly discussed is 2027, but a shift to 2026 is thought to be possible.

Georgia:

Elections will lead to political crisis and instability. "Georgian Dream" expected to try to hold on power at all costs, including Russian military support. This might trigger a civil war.