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Ukraine Situation Update

JCOT has decided to de-prioritize documentation of the situation as it changes too quickly and is better observed via sources like Euromaidan or Ukrinform . General situation updates will be posted here,though.

• 2022.03.07: Again, only gradual change. Kherson under full Russian control, but with local people protesting it. At an occupied air base, 30 Russian helicopters have been destroyed by Ukrainian forces. Attack on Kyiv from the north west still ongoing, with some suburbs destroyed by fighting. Continuously high Russian losses (about 1000 soldiers killed per day).

• 2022.03.02: Basic situation has only changed gradually, most larger cities still under Ukrainian control. Mariupol is surrounded and Kherson mostly under Russian control. Large Russian convoys and fuel trains have been attacked successfully by Bayraktar and other means. Breakthrough with Western arms supplies, now even from Germany and Sweden. Russian losses mounting, morale falling, with reports that at least one large unit has turned home near Sumy.

• 2022.02.25: While Russian troops have started to reach Kyiv, they have failed to take any of the larger cities which are blocking their way. Russian losses are mounting, both with aircraft (two large transport planes reported lost, plus a double digit number of fighters) and ground forces (reportedly 3'500 dead). Reports are mounting that Russian troops have low morale, operating in an unsecure mode and running out of fuel and food. Several incursions in cities and airborn attacks on airfields seem to have failed. Western arms support for Ukraine is being ramped up (Poland, Netherlands, U.S., UK).

• 2022.02.24 16:30: Russian troops have progressed from Crimea to the Cherson peninsula and reached the banks of the Dnepr, taking control of several bridges and dams. In the north, the forces have pushed from Belarus in the direction of Kyiv, supported by a landing operation west of Kyiv. In the east, two columns are progressing towards Kyiv, north and south of Sumy. Fighting at Sumy and Charkiv. At the contact line, less progress was made. By attacking (occupying?) the small "Bile" (Snake Island), Russian ships may try to prepare for a landing in Bessarabia, west of Odessa.

• 2022.02.24 - 9:30: The long expected attack on Ukraine has begun. After a short speech of war criminal Putin, bomber and rocket attacks against Ukrainian bases and infrastructure have started. Invasion forces have been confirmed at the contact line, from Belarus in the direction of Kiev and from Crimea.

• 2022.02.21-2: After assembling the Russian Security Council, Putin announced Russia would recognize DNR and LNR. Treaties were signed shortly afterwards while Russian military forces crossed into the occupied territories. In Belarus, Rosguardia troops from Chechnya were observed approaching the Ukrainian border. While Rosguardia troops are generally seen as forces used to occupy territories behind the front, the Chechnyans might be used for fighting within Kyiv.

• 2022.02.21: DNR and LNR have started mobilisation of their forces and are performing numerous false flag operations, releasing videos of explosions and removal of car bombs which unfortunately have time tags in their metadata showing they were recorded days or weeks earlier. On a higher level, Macron is suggesting a highest level meeting to discuss and resolve European security issues. He has received some support from Russia on this. Meanwhile, it has been announced that Russian troops will continue to be deployed in Belarus after the maneuvers which ended on 2022.02.20.

• 2022.02.18: DNR and LNR initiates massive evacuations of their citizens to Russia, claiming Ukraine was planning a large scale attack. This is seen as both part of a massive "false flag" operation and of final preparations for an attack.

• 2022.02.17: Russian demands now cover the total withdrawal of US forces from Eastern European NATO members and the return of all weapons sent to Ukraine, with no further military cooperation between Ukraine and the West allowed. Surge in artillery attacks from DNR / LNR against Ukraine.

• 2022.02.16: Russian "withdrawals" from Crime have been published, but debunked as a ruse, with troops relocated in the vicinity of Ukraine's eastern border. Surge of Russian troops at the border continues. Ukraine celebrates a "Day of Unity" to keep up morale.

• 2022.02.13: Several western embassies have evacuated most of their personnell, with some setting up emergency service locations in Lviv. Commercial air traffic is stopping due to insurance companies withdrawing coverage over Ukraine. Russian troops moving towards the border, and Navy forces readying and leaving ports. All OSCE observers leaving the Donbass.

• 2022.02.11: According to Nick Schifrin, PBS , the US has learned that Putin has made the decision to attack in the coming week, and has communicated it to the Russian Army. "Kiyv Post" reports that US are pulling their OSCE observers from Ukraine. The US, Norway, the Netherlands have notified their citizens to immediately leave Ukraine.

• 2022.02.10: Russian / Belarusian maneuvers have officially started. In parallel, Ukraine has started maneuvers and preparations.

• 2022.02.09: 6 Russian landing ships from the Baltic have reached the Black Sea. Russia has blocked large areas of the Black Sea for maneuvers.
Russian buildup continuing, reportedly reaching 150'000 troops.

• 2022.02.06: Russian buildup still ongoing - in contrast to earlier assessments, the attack has not yet taken place. Negotiations are continuing, with visits by Macron, Scholz, Baerbock, Truzz and others in Moscow and also Kyiv, but without making any progress.